This Year In Overlooked News
2023: The Elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a Potential Impending Crisis for the Russian Economy, and More.
Disclaimer: This list is by no means exhaustive. And some entries here are longer than others. Also, feel free to skip around if you like.
For my last post of the year, I thought it might be a good idea to revisit just some of the very many headlines that got lost in this year’s TV news cycle:
Voters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo headed to the polls yesterday. Unfortunately, this election took place amidst great political instability, affecting the ability of many people to participate in the electoral process. The crisis is particularly bad in the DRC’s eastern provinces—e.g., places like Ikuri and North Kivu—where rebel militia forces have engaged in intense combat with a weakened Congo army and a contingent of Ugandan troops. The rebel groups comprise both Islamic-State affiliated militants and M23, an organization the U.S. and the United Nations alleges has the firm support of Rwanda (Bariyo).
Per the Foreign Policy Research Institute, “the ongoing conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has cost approximately six million lives since 1996, making it one of the deadliest conflicts in world history.” It involves multiple different national, ethnic, and geopolitical groups, as well as the question of “economic control over Congo’s lucrative resources.” Many have indeed considered the DRC a “‘resource-cursed’ nation,” since “its natural bounty has [historically] invited outside intervention” (Parens). We need look no further than the infamous reign of King Leopold II of Belgium over “the Congo Free State” (from 1885 to 1908).
The origins of this particular conflict date as far back as the 1993-1994 Rwandan genocide, when both genocide victims and perpetrators fled to the eastern DRC—albeit “at different times” and during different phases of the Rwandan Civil War. As they all began to form competing militias, the remote region became more difficult to govern than ever. Wealthy outside state actors—in nations like Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi—have served to exacerbate the problem. “At various points,” they have each encouraged these organizations to “[act] as proxies for each state’s interests in the region.” All of that contributes to a vicious cycle where refugees join “these groups in hopes of economic gain or due to ideological fervor” (Parens).
Consequently, there is a risk that fighting could expand into a full-blown regional war. If that ever happened, the massive death tool and civilian suffering could spread to Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, and possibly other African nations. As it is, the fighting already “has displaced over five million Congolese” (Parens). In other words, the current, massive refugee crisis could spread and threaten the stability of the greater African continent.
In short, pay attention to the Congo as we head into 2024. And see https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/congo-heads-to-polls-amid-worlds-worst-hunger-displacement-crisis-569c6e62 and https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/09/conflict-in-eastern-congo-a-spark-away-from-a-regional-conflagration/ for more.
In other Africa news, New York Times predicts that by 2050, one in four people on the planet will be African (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/28/world/africa/africa-youth-population.html). Even more recent reporting has demonstrated how “the African Youth Boom” alluded to above has transformed the French language—“one joke, rap, and book at a time,” as one author put it (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/world/africa/africa-french-language.html). One more reason to pay close attention to the DRC.
If Congress ever managed to get its act together on Ukraine (or anything, for that matter), we and the Ukrainian people might be able to exploit some perhaps surprising weaknesses in the Russian war effort.
For example, on November 7, “dozens of women rallied in Moscow…demanding that their husbands…return home, a rare display of protest amid a crackdown on any dissent over the Ukrainian conflict” (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-women-protest-husbands-ukraine-war-return/32675045.html).
Now, some might think I am being unrealistically optimistic here. To that, I respond that the Russian government (at least for the first month or so) has been much more cautious in its approach to these protests. It has generally resorted to “intimidation and cajoling” to suppress these protests, preferring to avoid more traditional heavy-handed like mass detentions and arrests (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/world/europe/russia-ukraine-protests-women.html).
Finally, remember that the Women’s March on Versailles (another event involving everyday women) was arguably the beginning of the French Revolution and the beginning of the end for the French royal family. I am sure the Putin regime will be keeping that in mind.
Another overlooked weakness in the Russian war effort is the housing market. Yes, you heard me right. To make a long story short, Russians were—once upon a time—extremely skeptical of morgages, otherwise known as “debt bondage.” The Russian people’s general tendency to just buy a home outright changed in 2020, with the establishment of subsidized government housing/mortgage programs (https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russias-economy-has-a-surprising-problem-a-property-bubble-975d7d80).
From there, the Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerated the process, and the government contributed to a sharp increase in cheap mortgages and “interest rates” set at “far below market rate.” However, that “robust spending and lending” currently runs the risk of and in fact shows “signs of overheating.” If the signs are correct, those in Russia could find that “their savings through subsidized mortgages are being wiped out” (https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russias-economy-has-a-surprising-problem-a-property-bubble-975d7d80).
And who would this affect the worst? You guessed it: the families of Russia’s dead and injured soldiers (https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russias-economy-has-a-surprising-problem-a-property-bubble-975d7d80).
Lastly, despite the inroads right-wing authoritarianism has made in other countries, it did suffer key defeats at the ballot box in places like Poland (https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/europe/poland-pis-confidence-vote-tusk-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20party%2C%20led%20by%20Jaroslaw,parliamentary%20majority%20in%20October's%20election.&text=Poland's%20populist%20Law%20and%20Justice,of%20the%20country%20this%20week.).
Perhaps some much-welcome reason for hope. Especially as Donald “Immigrants Are Poisoning the Blood of Our Country” Trump continues to display his stranglehold over the Republican Party.
And on that note, merry Christmas and happy Kwanzaa!