The State of Our Union's Elections (Part 2; With Free Subscriber Preview)

Putting the Fun Back in the Fundamentals

Photo by Karsten Winegeart on Unsplash. He still looks like a better choice than Trump.

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In an October 20, 2024 article for The Silver Bulletin, Nate Silver gave 24 reasons Trump could win. In a New York Times editorial about 3 days later, Mr. Silver claimed “his gut” is telling him Trump will win this race.

In that case, I think there may be something wrong with his gut. He might want to get that checked out before Election Day.

Okay, okay, maybe that was too dismissive. Besides, Mr. Silver is not alone in his gut feeling. Harry Enten—a fellow 538 alum and CNN’s current data “guru”—has made similar proclamations. In early October, Mr. Enten boldly predicted that Harris looks “like a loser.”

(Of course, like a true ratings-driven pundit actively trying to play all sides, Mr. Enten later pretended he never made that prediction and argued that the signs of a Harris win are now “as clear as day.” Just a few days earlier, he had said the exact same thing about Trump).