2024 and the Polling and Punditry Predicament
The State of America's Elections (Part 1)
Before anything else, let me just recommend Phillips O’Brien’s excellent post on Ukraine. For those who don’t know him, Mr. O’Brien is a well-respected historian and a participant in the Ukrainian History Global Initiative. O’Brien’s important work suggests that the mainstream media has greatly underreported and underestimated both Russian weakness and Ukrainian strength.
The Ukrainian struggle for freedom continues. In this country, we must fight our battles at the ballot box. Much is at stake in this election. According to the report of a congressionally appointed commission investigating global threats, we confront “the most serious and the most challenging [threats] the nation has encountered since 1945” (emphasis mine).
Do we really want Donald Trump leading the world through these challenges? The same man that claims that Haitians are eating cats and dogs in Springfield? The same man who wants to set up Xi and Putin-style tribunals for “traitors” like Liz Cheney? The same man who flirted with “terminating” the Constitution?
I have said it before: the autocrats of the world are watching. Yet, as my brother Michael has noted, this election is about more than one man—even if that one man is a singular threat to the American experiment. We must do our part to transform America via the down-ballot.
Meanwhile, here we stand. Glued to the polls. What did the latest New York Times-Siena poll say? What about the polling averages? What about the CNN Poll of Polls?
I get the fear. The polls can feel like a rollercoaster. Who’s winning, who’s losing? Who knows, you might think to yourself. Not so surprisingly, that is exactly the type of uncertainty that the polling-pundit industry likes. Because it gets you to keep watching, keep clicking, and keep interacting with the content.
The pollster-pundits are not oracles. To be sure, that statement cuts both ways. Nate Silver and the polling pundit elites were wrong about Hillary Clinton in 2016. They underestimated Trump in 2020, mainly because they underestimated how much people became normalized to 4 years of Trump. At the same time—and this is important—they predicted a 2022 red wave that never materialized.
Yes, I saw the latest Times-Siena poll. I repeat: the pollster-pundits are not oracles. Especially when their findings go against plain old common sense. Did Arizona have a 10-point swing away from Vice-President Harris in a matter of weeks? Did Harris lose ground in North Carolina after news of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s “black Nazi” comments?
Hysteria’s greatest enemy is common sense. Frankly, the Times-Siena absurdity is the least of the problem. Like in 2022, the right-wing polling market has continued to flood the battlegrounds with slanted polls in a game of what I can only call psychological warfare against the anti-Trump silent majority. In fact, if you go through the 538 polling averages state-by-state, you might see the usual suspects. Trafalgar Group, Patriot Polling, Wick Insights, etc,. Democratic political strategists Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier have talked about the right-wing pollsters’ nefarious work at length. It was how they saw through the red wave hysteria two years ago.
In 2024, they have made their case once more, backed up with a treasure trove of data. For my part—for now—I would like to encourage people to look beyond that data.
In 2016, we knew that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were historically unpopular candidates. We knew many people thought of Hillary Clinton as the ultimate dishonest politician, and the ultimate establishment candidate. The climate could not have been any better for Trump. Still—even in that election—he won with merely 46% of the vote.
In 2020—after 4 years where Trump became a normal part of our political climate and had a 9-point advantage over Biden on the economy and pocketbook issues—Donald Trump took his usual 46%-47% of the vote (unable repeatedly to break 50%). Is that more than you would expect from the president who oversaw our disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic? Sure. But it is roughly what he got in 2016. Despite, again, Trump’s clear advantage on the economy.
Time after time, Trump has failed to get a majority of the popular vote in America. Forget the polls for a second. The polls are snapshots in time. Look at the permanent receipts. The receipts tell the story of a man who has consistently failed to improve on his 2016 numbers. Most important of all, they tell the story of a man who led his party to a historically disappointing midterm performance in 2022—across many of the same battleground states he is campaigning for today.
Many Republicans claim this election will be a referendum on “the failed policies of President Biden.” They said the same 2 years ago. Why should we believe them now, if they were so so wrong then? Inflation was higher in 2022. The polls said the economy was Americans’ top issue in 2022. The polls considered immigration a top-of-mind concern for voters in 2022. Where is the imaginary momentum that Republicans gained from then to now?
If anything, Trump is facing a new challenge. He is going up against a candidate who has a positive net favorability rating. Kamala Harris is not Hillary Clinton. For Vice President Harris to have a net positive favorability rating at all is nothing short of amazing. Think of this highly polarized age we live in. VP Harris has had to convince almost all Democrats to like her—not support her. Like her. Do you know how hard that is?
Just look at Trump and Vance’s numbers by comparison; they are about 13% underwater on net favorability.
No, this election is not over. Not by a long shot. But 2022 was not over until the last voter cast the last ballot in the last state. If we do the work, we will win. So, “in the name of democracy, let us all unite!”